RHINOS AND COVID-19 – THE PERFECT STORM?

In the past few months, a number of momentous events have occurred which, in my view, will increase the onslaught on the world’s remaining rhinos. All of these are interlinked and COVID-19 could be the catalyst for a spike in poaching of rhino and other threatened wildlife. 

In February this year, the South African Minister for the Environment, Ms Barbara Creecy, proudly announced that the number of rhinos poached in South Africa had reduced from 769 in 2018 to 584 in 2019. So, the killing rate has dropped from the peak of three rhinos a day to three rhinos every second day. Is this something we should be cheering about?

The Minister attributed the decline in poaching to better technology, improved data sharing between law enforcement authorities and ‘more meaningful involvement of the private sector, NGO’s and philanthropists.’ https://www.environment.gov.za/mediarelease/reportbackon2019_rhinopoachingstatistics

She also rightfully praised the work of the front- line rangers.

Better news is that, reportedly, the black-market price for rhino horn in Asia has dropped from $65,000 per kilogram to $25,000.00 per kilogram.

While we do applaud the reduction in the poaching numbers, what the South African authorities do not disclose is how many rhinos are actually left in the country. 

Let’s try and explore this situation calmly and objectively (which is difficult given that more than 8,000 rhinos have been slaughtered in the past decade.)

How many white rhinos – listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as ‘near threatened’ (meaning they may be considered threatened with extinction in the near future), are left? 

How many black rhinos that are ‘critically endangered’, (categorized by the IUCN as facing an extremely high risk of extinction  in the wild) – are left? Noting that poachers are not discriminant about which species they are hunting – a horn is a horn and the bigger the better.

Consensus seems to suggest that there are around 4,000 black rhinos and 15,000 white rhinos remaining in the wild. Again, this seems to be a soft number depending on who one talks to and whether that person or organisation has an agenda or not.

The problem with not releasing official numbers is that people then make up their own numbers and what deeply troubles me is that there is now a whole industry around rhino conservation – in all my years working in conservation, it seems to me that there are people who do not necessarily want the rhino poaching crisis to abate since they are dependent on the ‘cause’ for their own employment and, sadly, they go on wanting their salaries and the (questionable) prestige attached to their efforts. 

There is also a significant number of privately owned rhinos in South Africa, notably approximately 1,900 by John Hume. One wonders how long John can continue to afford to feed these rhinos and keep them safe when his monthly cost is almost $500,000.00

There also the naysayers who scoffingly say that rhinos will never become extinct, yet in 2020 there are only two northern white rhinos, both females, left on this planet while the western black rhino, a subspecies of the black rhino, was declared extinct by the IUCN in 2011 – nine short years ago.

In the past few months, a number of momentous events have occurred which, in my view, will increase the onslaught on the world’s remaining rhinos. All of these are interlinked. 

The Coronavirus pandemic, COVID-19, has rocked the world. The cause of the virus is not exactly known at present but there seems to be agreement that bats and pangolin are involved and fingers are being pointed at live wildlife markets in Wuhan in China. Pangolins have the unwanted reputation of being the most illegally trafficked mammals in the world. They are poached mainly for their scales, which are believed to treat a variety of health conditions in traditional Chinese medicine, and as a luxury food throughout Asia. Seemingly one or more unsuspecting families in Wuhan have consumed pangolin scales with catastrophic global consequences. 

The Wildlife Conservation Society said, “Poorly regulated, live-animal markets mixed with illegal wildlife trade offer a unique opportunity for viruses to spill over from wildlife hosts into the human population.” 

In the case of SARS, bats were the original hosts. The bats then infected other animals, which transmitted the disease to humans. 

The Wuhan market, where the current outbreak is thought to have started, was closed in January and soon after China announced a temporary national ban on the buying, selling, and transportation of wild animals in markets, restaurants, and online marketplaces across the country. This ban later became permanent.

Shortly thereafter, Vietnam imposed a similar ban of the trading of wildlife and, as expected, there was universal joy amongst conservationists since this was a significant policy change. I have a slightly different view – I am excited, but suspicious; the effectiveness of the bans will be entirely dependent on the ongoing political will to enforce them.

Now let’s have a look at this situation at the coalface. Previously, on any given night, up to forty groups of poachers were operating in the Kruger National Park in South Africa. Despite a number of poachers being apprehended or killed, need and/ or greed will not reduce these numbers, there will always be foot soldiers ready to risk their lives and make some money in what can be described as a low risk exercise. 

On the side of the ‘protectors’ there are also several unknowns. South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, announced a nationwide COVID-19 lock-down, effective March 26. While game rangers will almost certainly be considered an essential service, human nature is such that these men and women, irrespective of rank, will be concerned about the safety and wellbeing of their families alone at home – outside of the Kruger Park - which could result in a reduction in anti-poaching activity.

As part of the national lock-down, all tourists have been required to exit the Kruger Park. The Park has 5,300 beds, the capacity of another 1900 campsites and a limited number of day visitors and this ban on tourists means that all of these additional eyes and ears covering the 2,500 kilometres network of roads in the Park are gone and, to all intents and purposes, the Kruger National Park is now deserted. In Kruger there is one ranger for approximately 50 square kilometres. This means that about 400 rangers try and protect approximately 20,000 square kilometres of wilderness including a border with Mozambique of approximately 160km – almost impossible to effectively protect, despite the increasing use of technology.

The coronavirus can be a wild card in Africa, just as Aids was. Countries such as Mozambique just do not have the infrastructure, health or otherwise, to contain this virus if it gets into the communities. With a population of 30 million and an unemployment rate approaching 30%, the virus could decimate the population and this could work for or against the number of poachers entering the Kruger Park. This calamity, brought on by COVID-19, could be repeated right across Africa.

In this context, what of the ‘good news’ about the reduction in the price of rhino horn from $65,000 per kilo to $22,000 per kilo?  Of course this is welcome, but if one considers that the average weight of a rhino horn is 4.5 kgs, one horn will still fetch $100,000, a stunning amount of money and still more expensive than cocaine – the world’s most expensive drug.

What will not change is the determination of the international wildlife crime syndicates to acquire as many rhino horns as they possibly can, in the shortest possible time.

With the probable reduction in anti-poaching activity and no tourists: the ban of wildlife trading in China and Vietnam (however effective that proves to be) and the world’s preoccupation with the Coronavirus, I fear that the crime syndicates will see this as a unique window of opportunity to significantly increase the level of poaching of rhinos and build their stockpiles of horn.

All of these factors converging to create the perfect storm for the remaining rhinos on planet earth.